Hurricane Olivia forecast to enter Hawaiian waters next week

Archived Central Pacific Infrared Images

At 5 p.m. HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olivia was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 135.2 West. Olivia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow weakening trend is expected during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

Continued slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days as Olivia moves over marginal sea surface temperatures of about 25C and into an increasingly drier, more stable thermodynamic environment.

Afterward, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer waters and remain in a low shear environment, so little change in strength is expected through day 3. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt should induce more significant weakening.


1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of any impacts. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to enact your hurricane action plan.

2. Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well away from the center.

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Actions to take whenever a tropical storm or hurricane nears Hawaii

All of Hawaii’s citizens should know what to do during a hurricane, tropical storm watches and warnings. Watches and warnings are prepared for the Hawaiian Islands by the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. When watches and warnings are issued, people should closely monitor the Internet, radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio for official bulletins of the storm’s progress and instructions from civil defense authorities. Jim Weyman, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, “Although you and your family may have never experienced a hurricane, don’t be complacent! It’s not a matter of if a hurricane will occur, but when one will occur. All of the Hawaiian Islands are at risk for a hurricane and we should all know what actions to take.”

For the Central Pacific Ocean a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are possible in the specified area of the Watch, usually within 48 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is issued:

For the Central Pacific Ocean a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning means hurricane/tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of the Warning, usually within 36 hours.

When a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning is issued:

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issues tropical cyclone warnings, watches, advisories, discussions, and statements for all tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific from 140 Degrees West Longitude to the International Dateline. The season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. However, tropical cyclones can occur at any time. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu activates the CPHC when: (1) a tropical cyclone moves into the Central Pacific from the Eastern Pacific, (2) a tropical cyclone forms in the Central Pacific, or (3) a tropical cyclone moves into the Central Pacific from the West.

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