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Wet season rainfall outlook for Hawaii


Summary of the dry season (May through September 2014)

Statewide: Most locations had near to above average rainfall

Wettest dry season in the last 30 years (based on average rankings from eight sites) despite late August and early September dryness.

o Monthly rainfall records broken at 16 sites

o July rainfall at Waimanalo broke a record dating back to 1908

Big Island: Near to above average at most locations.

o First time since 2006 heading into wet season without any drought areas

Maui County: Small areas of moderate drought

o Upcountry residents asked to reduce water use by 10 percent.

o Areas of west ­central Molokai served by the Kualapuu Reservoir remain under a mandatory 20 percent cutback in irrigation water use.

Oahu and Kauai: No drought areas, even after the dry season.

One of the rare cases in recent years where the state is in relatively good shape heading into an El Nino wet season.

Outlook for the wet season (October 2014 through April 2015)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): El Nino still expected to develop by the end of 2014.

o 55 to 60 percent probability

o Lower probability than initially forecasted several months ago.

El Nino projected to be weak.

Probabilities favor below average rainfall through spring 2015

o Below average, but not as dry as 2009 – 2010 and 1997-1998.

o A weak El Nino usually allows some heavy rain events to impact the state . Some drought development expected in early 2015.

o Mainly affecting agriculture sector and those sensitive to short term rainfall shortages (e.g. catchment systems).

o Not expecting extreme drought conditions at this time.

— Find out more:… efe&webmap=3cd8bf53c1f24cddb74bfe99bc430210… NOAA Climate Prediction Center:

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