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Rainfall outlook for wet season


Summary of the dry season (May through September 2013)

Statewide: Many sites from Kauai to Maui had near to above average rainfall totals but the Big Island was dry overall, especially in the leeward areas.

* Wet season extended into May and delayed start of the dry season

* Tropical cyclone activity (Flossie and remnant of Gil) boosted rainfall in July and August

Big Island:

* Below average rainfall at most locations

* Most of the island under some level of drought

* “Extreme drought” (D3 category in U.S. Drought Monitor) remained over the Pohakuloa area through the entire dry season.

* Mainly affecting agricultural operations and residents on catchment.

Maui County:

* “Severe drought” (D2 category) to “Extreme drought” expanded from the Kihei area into the Upcountry section of the island

* Upcountry residents asked to reduce water use by 20 percent.


* “Moderate drought” (D1 category) remained confined to leeward Waianae slopes through the dry season. Mainly impacting agricultural interests.


* “Moderate drought” remained confined to the leeward areas through the dry season and mainly impacted agriculture operations.

Outlook for the wet season (October 2013 through April 2014)

* NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): ENSO-neutral (neither El Nino or La Nina) present for over a year.

* ENSO-neutral expected to persist into spring 2014.

* Near to above average rainfall through early 2014

* Consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in recent years.

* CPC long range probabilities suggest an early start to the 2014 dry season.

* Drought recovery probable on Kauai and Oahu.

* As in recent wet seasons, some drought recovery expected on the Big Island and Maui County but full recovery may not occur due to the intensity and longevity of existing drought conditions.

Wet season preparedness reminders

Do not drive on roads with fast-flowing water or cross flooded streams

Clean gutters and drainage ditches

If you live in a flood-prone area, identify your evacuation routes ahead of time and plan for more rainy weather impacts

Increased road travel times or possible detours due to flooding

Outdoor activities may be postponed, canceled, or adjusted The wet season always brings increased potential for lightning strikes

Be prepared for power outages

Move indoors during a thunderstorm

Monitor media, NOAA Weather Radio, and Internet sources for changes in weather conditions

— Find out more:
NOAA National Weather Service Honolulu: NOAA Weather Ready Nation:
NOAA Climate Prediction Center:
U.S. Drought Monitor:

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