(Jim Scott previews Saturday’s men’s age group race)

If you haven’t seen this article in the last few years, I typically try to forecast the performances in each age group at the Ford Ironman World Championships.

Just to preface this article, we first have to be honest with each other: your husband, brother, son, nephew, uncle, father, grandfather are not as fast as you or they think they are, so I can’t include everyone.

Oh, they’re fast because they’ve qualified for Kona, but they are not necessarily Kona-fast. It’s been proven that experience is an asset on the Big Island and a 9:30 at Ironman Austria does not equal a 9:30 in Kona.

With that said, Kona is what it is because of the variability often seen in the race. Here’s hoping that your loved ones are on the favored side of Madame Pele.

18-24

The maturation of Marcel Bischof over the last few years is impressive. Bischof finished Ironman Florida in 8:59 in 2009; an improvement on his 9:20 in 2007. He has also been to Kona once before where he finished In 10:36, so he does have the experience. Anyone who has gone sub-nine in this age group is an athlete to look out for.

Another athlete is German Sebastian Kufner. Kufner raced at Ironman Germany this year and finished in 9:02. Surprise – he’s fast on the bike (4:50), but he is really a balanced athlete in all three disciplines.

It appears he’ll be ready to race: “I’ll travel to Kona in a few days and we’ll stay there from Oct. 2 till Oct. 14. So far the training went quite well, although it’s really cold in Germany.”

Other athletes to watch:
* Christian Mokros (Ironman European Championship 9:29)

25-29

This age group race looks to be, on paper, a very competitive field lining up with little separating them. If one athlete should be singled out based on 2010 performances, I would look to Dr. Karl Belzik. Belzik posted an 8:51 at Ironman Florida and, although a fast course, there’s no discounting a 4:41 bike split followed by a 3:00 marathon. Belzik is primed for a solid race and a potential top-5 placing:

“My preparation went well all year long. I’m confident that my performance will be better than 2007 or 2008. I worked hard on my key limiters swim and run.”

That 2008 performance, by the way, was a 9:25 and 8th place finish.

One athlete in this age group that I like is Kevin Taddonio. If you recall from a previous article, Taddonio qualified with a 9:07 at Ironman Arizona winning his age group in his first Ironman.

“I feel like I am on the form of my life right now … I have had a few hard race simulation workouts that suggest I am on good enough form to go under 9 hours at Kona if the wind isn’t blowing horribly on the bike. “

Readers of this column always keep me honest as I routinely miss performances like those of Trevor Delsaut, as a friend of his correctly pointed out: In 2010, Delsaut recorded an 8:33 at Ironman Austria and an 8:53 at Ironman South Africa. Look out for Delsaut in this race!

Other athletes to watch:
* Martin Droll (Ironman European Championship 9:03)
* Frank Mueller and Michael Rohleder (Ironman European Championship 9:13)
* Anthony Rule (Ironman New Zealand 9:12)
* Luca Della Giacoma (Ironman Lanzarote 9:23 with a 4:55 bike)
* Jose Maria Salom Arranz (Ironman Lanzarote 9:25 with a 2:53 run)

30-34

The number of athletes in this age group that have broken the nine hour barrier is rather shocking. Of the list of athletes that I have, there have been six athletes that have qualified under nine hours and another dozen in the low nine hour mark. Whatever happens on race day, this suggest some very fast times.

Trent Chapman’s performance at Ironman Australia was astounding, to say the least. A 44 minute swim, 4:43 bike, and a 3:01 marathon led to an 8:32 clocking and third overall. If he is racing, Chapman is the odds-on favorite with this performance.

Joe Kurian wants to have a better performance this year than when he finished the 2009 race in 10:02. He started by qualifying at Ironman Wisconsin in 2009 in impressive fashion when he finished in 9:12.

“This year, I’m coming to Hawaii with those memories fresh in my mind and a strong will to do the absolute best I can … I think this year is my best chance for a while, and I hope to be competing for a top spot in my age group.”

Sami Inkinen should have a strong race and top performance in this age group. Inkinen has just returned from Budapest where he took silver in the Olympic distance World Championships, just five seconds from gold. It remains to be seen in his lack of long distance training has been impacted.

“It’s been a special year since due to my hectic work life; I haven’t raced anything longer than Olympic distance or trained more than 15hrs/week since 2009, which makes it difficult to know where I am exactly for an Ironman. But my coach, Matt Dixon, is fantastic in creating a high return training plan on even with limited time.”

Other athletes to watch:
* Gilad Rotem (Ironman European Championship 8:52). A second and third in the 25-29 age group has Rotem posed to take top spot in this age group.
* Sebastien Stalder (Ironman Florida 8:53)
* Wim Van de Wielle (Ironman Florida 8:49)

35-39

The defending champion, Christian Mueller is registered for the race and is considered a favorite, based on his 9:01 performance last year and being the fastest age grouper overall. However, there are contenders.

Fabrice Houzelle has been steadily moving up the age group ranks in Kona over the last three years and finished 9th last year. He posted an 8:57 at the Ironman European Championships this year and is posed to move up the podium.

Tim Hola is always a contender in Kona. His fifth place last year and his overall experience on the Big Island makes Hola one athlete that can contend. His 8:47 at Ironman Florida further reinforces that.

Damien Angus races in Kona every five years. He will be back in 2010 on the heels of a 9:04 showing at Ironman Australia. Angus competed in 2005 in what he calls “a perfect race,” when he finished in 8:59. This year he’s armed with full family support:

“This year the trip will double as a family holiday; with Elise (5), Alexander (4) and Isobel (6 months) all coming in support (with a very understanding wife (Catherine)”.

Other athletes to watch:
* Ed McDevitt (Ironman Arizona 9:02)
* Andrew Howse (Ironman New Zealand 9:06)
* Patrick Shuster and Gwenael Sesboue (Ironman Florida 8:59)
* Mark Jansen (Ironman Western Australia 8:54)

40-44

The defending champion, Doug Clark took this division last year with a four-minute victory and is registered again. Also registered in this age group are Luis De La Torre and Jim Beuselinck. If these two guys are racing, they will be in the mix. Beuselinck holds an 8:47 in the 35-39 age group from 2006, a time that still stands as the course record.

In 2007 and 2008, De La Torre took home 4th place in the 35-39 age group and the 40-44 age group. This resident of Kailua-Kona should be on the podium in 2010.

At the Ironman European Championships, Frank Horlacher put together a 4:50 bike with a 3:13 marathon to finish in 9:03. Last year in Kona, Horlacher finished 6th overall, so is in a good position to move up in this age group.

Perhaps a dark horse to be on the podium in this very competitive age group, but look out for Bryan Dunn. Dunn finished 28th in his first time at Kona. This year may be different.

In ’07 my race was all about finishing and I had a perfect day and a time I am very proud of. With that in the bank, this year I am going to try and race it and be competitive in the AG. That focus has changed my feeling toward Oct. 9, a bit more pressure, a bit less fun, but I think it will be worth it.”

Other athletes to watch:
* Jochen Diedrich (Ironman European Championship 9:23)
* Mark Cross (Ironman New Zealand 9:23)

45-49

There are some returning top-10 athletes from 2009 that will be competing again this year. Bent Anderson leads the way after his incredible 9:11 performance last year. This was a 25 min victory last year, so if Anderson is at the Pier on race morning, this race may be a forgone conclusion. However, there are other athletes that will be competitive.

Ironman Wisconsin had a very interesting 45-49 age group race with Wolfgang Schmatz (9:35) and Pierre Lavoie (9:37) going head to head. These are two very proven athletes in Kona: Schmatz took 3rd in 2007 and Lavoie has two age group wins in the 40-44 race.

Other athletes to watch:
* David Boyes 9:37 and 3rd in 2009. Boyes had a 9:16 at Ironman Western Australia to qualify.
* Robert Schloegel 9:46 and 6th in 2009
* Roger Canham 9:46 and 7th in 2009
* Albert Boyce (Ironman Coeur d’Alene 9:52. Not the fastest qualifier, but usually places well in the overall.)
* Richard Nixon (Ironman Florida 9:11)

— Find out more:
www.ironman.com