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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
800 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

…HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS….

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 800 PM HST…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 165.6 WEST OR ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. NEKI WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NEKI. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TONIGHT.

…SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…15.9N 165.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

More info at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Infrared Images

NASA’s TRMM Sees Some Heavy Rains in Neki as it Heads Toward Johnston Island

By Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

TRMM's analysis of rainfall within Neki showed areas of heavy rainfall. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. Red areas are heavy rainfall at almost 2 inches per hour. Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, or TRMM satellite has been flying over Tropical Storm Neki in the Central Pacific Ocean and providing scientists with an idea of how much rainfall Johnston Island can expect from it.

A Hurricane Watch is already in effect for Johnston Island. That means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be issued later today, meaning hurricane conditions are happening.

Johnston Island is the main island in the Johnston Atoll, a 50-square-mile atoll in the North Pacific Ocean. It’s located 750 nautical miles west of Hawaii. The Atoll consists of four islands: Johnston, Sand, North Island and East Island.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) passed over Tropical Storm Neki on October 20 at 1043 UTC (6:43 a.m. EDT/12:43a.m. HST) and captured a look at Neki’s rainfall. TRMM found that there were some areas of heavy rainfall in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Rainfall rates were around 2 inches per hour in that part of Neki.

Rain rates are created from different instruments aboard TRMM. The rain rates in the center of TRMM images are derived from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, the only spaceborne radar of its kind, while those in the outer portion are from the TRMM Microwave Imager. The rain rates are then overlaid on infrared data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner to create the entire image. The images are created at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Md.

TRMM also has the ability to analyze how high the thunderstorms are in tropical cyclones, and this morning’s image indicated there were some “hot towers,” that is, towering thunderstorms that are almost 15 kilometers (about 9 miles) high. That’s an indication that the storm is strengthening.

At 2 a.m. HST (8 a.m. EDT) on October 20, Tropical Storm Neki’s maximum sustained winds had increased from 40 mph to 50 mph, and it is expected to continue intensifying. Neki was located about 515 miles east-southeast of Johnston Island, and 640 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. It was near 13.0 North and 162.8 West. Neki is moving northwest near 18 mph and will continue in that direction for the next two days, although it is forecast to slow down. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Neki will continue to strengthen as it moves northwest and could pass Johnston Island as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Neki is headed for a landfall over the tiny island by Thursday, October 22.